Summary of the hottest PTA spot market in one week

2022-08-06
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One week's market review of PTA spot market (7..25)

pta spot:

weekly average CCF price of inner plate spot: 9132 yuan/ton cash shipboard -244 yuan/ton

weekly average CCF price of outer plate spot: 1152.4 US dollars/ton CIF 90 days -22 US dollars/ton

PTA spot has accelerated its decline all the way this week when crude oil futures and PX plummeted and lost strong cost support. The CCF price at the mainstream transaction level of high-quality spot in the inner market dropped sharply from 9300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8890 yuan/ton at present, with an absolute drop of 410 yuan/ton. The average spot price for a week fell by 244 yuan/ton compared with last week; The spot CCF price of the outer disk also dropped from 1165 us and German reprap at the beginning of the week to 1 system Zui large static test force: 500 kn; The current price is 1140 US dollars/ton, with an absolute decrease of as much as 25 US dollars/ton. The average spot price for one week has dropped by 21.6 US dollars/ton to 1152.8 US dollars/ton compared with last week

the trigger for this round of PTA spot rapid decline is undoubtedly the crazy collapse of crude oil and related petrochemical products. After crude oil futures failed to reach the top of $150/barrel at a high level, it fell to below $125/barrel at the lowest level this week under the shock trend of sharp decline and slight recovery along the way, while downstream petrochemical products such as Px, MX and naphtha fell all the way, among which PX fell the most violently and nearly collapsed. Asia PX began to fall from the high range of $1659/ton FOB South Korea last Thursday to the current level of $1486/ton FOB South Korea, which has fallen below the level of $1500, The cumulative decline was more than $170/ton. Naphtha also fell sharply, from a relatively high of $1221/ton last Thursday to the current $1064/ton CFR Japan, with a cumulative decline of $157 MX has performed slightly better recently driven by gasoline demand, but the spot price also fell from 1351 at the beginning of the week to 1323 US dollars/ton FOB Korea The collapse of the whole upstream raw material cost has had a great impact on the nerves of people in the PTA spot market, causing confusion in the market atmosphere, market confidence almost collapsing, and the PTA spot price accelerated to decline

on the other hand, since the beginning of July, the production reduction of polyester plant has been deepened, which has also led to the gradual shrinkage of PTA demand It is estimated that since the beginning of July, due to the high expected positioning of PTA contract, polyester enterprises have been forced to increase the area of production reduction in the face of difficulties in pushing up product prices and continuous downturn in sales. The polyester load is gradually falling back to less than 70%, and the monthly demand for PTA is also gradually falling back to less than 1.2 million tons, which is about million tons less than the normal operation load in the previous period. On the contrary, in terms of supply, After the operation of Ningbo Taihua Chemical Co., Ltd. was gradually normal in May and the PTA centralized maintenance cycle in May passed, the domestic PTA output began to increase significantly from May. It is estimated that the domestic PTA output in June was close to 790000 tons, an increase of about 100000 tons from May. According to the starting load of domestic PTA units in the first half of July, the output in July is likely to continue to increase from June; In terms of import volume, despite the slow progress in the negotiation of external contracts in July, the good performance of contracts in June and the bullish attitude of traders in the early stage towards the later market make it unlikely that PTA external suppliers in July will fall significantly on the basis of June. According to this calculation, if PTA suppliers do not implement production reduction measures again at the end of the month, the supply of PTA in July may even rise instead of falling on the basis of June. When the supply-demand relationship is basically balanced and even relaxed, the market mentality has once again become another major factor guiding the market

in addition, the production and sales of polyester end products this week are relatively general. There is a great difference in the production and sales of polyester products between Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The sales of factories dominated by POY and DTY are weak, and the production and sales are generally only in Chengdu, while the production and sales of factories dominated by FDY are slightly better, with an average of around Chengdu. The polyester chip market is also relatively quiet. Due to the large-scale reduction in the production of chip spinning, the market transaction focus also continues to decline. The mainstream transaction cash of Xiaoshao semi gloss chip is around 10800 yuan/ton, and traders' mentality is lax, and low-cost selling occurs from time to time. On the other hand, in the early stage, the market placed high hopes on the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy in the second half of July. The repeated reports of various multimedia on this news made the market place high expectations on the increase of textile demand after the increase of export tax rebate. However, at the beginning of this week, relevant state leaders said during Market Research in Guangdong and other places that "the foreign trade policy will remain stable". This news has significantly reduced the market's expectations for the introduction of tax rebates for textiles and clothing in the short term. However, the month itself is the traditional off-season for textile in China. In order to improve automobile fuel efficiency and reduce pollution, the domestic demand market is weak, and the foreign trade is not expected to drive, In the short term, the operating rate of looms around the country still drops, and the downstream performance is weak, which makes PTA spot still lack strong support from the demand level in the short term. Although PTA factories also continue to increase production reduction this week, including the introduction of domestic suppliers' contract settlement positioning at around 9600 yuan/ton in July at the end of the month, which may also support the market in the short term, the market still needs to continue to pay attention to crude oil The depth of PX spot adjustment, on the one hand, is the rising price of battery raw materials, the positioning of PX contract settlement in August, the late production reduction of PTA and polyester enterprises, and the start-up of terminal looms in various regions

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